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Welcome to the Probabilistic Population Projection Model (PPPM) for Java

The PPPM is a model that you can use to project a population by single age and sex probabilistically. Probabilistic population projections allow you to catch and quantify projection uncertainty.

Screenshot

In general, you need assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration to project a population over a projection horizon of several years. Usually, the PPPM computes outcome density (for instance for the future total population size) via Monte-Carlo simulation (though another computation mode is available too).

A brief note on terminology: the PPPM is the methodological projection model, and the P3J is the software prototype that implements it.

Features

  • Separate assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration for subpopulations, i. e. for natives, immigrants, emigrants, and their descendant generations
  • Generate multiple assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration for each subpopulation with any method you deem best
  • Exclude implausible combinations of assumptions in a projection trial via Settypes and Sets
  • Powerful output analysis and reporting

See the Feature Overview for details.

Installation

Requirements

Please make sure that you have Java 7 (Update 7 or higher) installed.

Installation Steps

The installation is fairly simple:

  1. Download the latest release (check the Release Notes to find out about new features)
  2. Unzip the release

Optional Tools

  • You need R and LaTeX for report generation (but not for results export, this also works without these tools)
  • For 'real' (large) population projections, we strongly recommend that you use MySQL (see Using MySQL for details)

Usage

To start the software, execute p3j.bat if you are using MS Windows or p3j.sh if you are using Linux.

See How to conduct a projection for a detailed walkthrough.

Further Information

You can find further information about the PPPM and its implementation here:

  1. Christina Bohk (2012): Ein probabilistisches Bevölkerungsprognosemodell. Entwicklung und Anwendung für Deutschland, Ph.D. thesis, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, (accessible here: http://www.springer-vs.de/Buch/978-3-531-19266-6/Ein-probabilistisches-Bevoelkerungsprognosemodell.html)
  2. Christina Bohk, Roland Ewald and Adelinde M. Uhrmacher (2009): Probabilistic population projection with JAMES II, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference (freely accesible here: http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc09papers/193.pdf)

For more information, just contact Christina_Bohk :

http://www.wiwi.uni-rostock.de/soziologie/demographie/bohk/

In case you use the PPPM or the P3J to conduct a population projection, please cite one of the references given above.

Development

Contributions to the project are always welcome. Please see How to contribute for details.

Development Team:

This tool is based on the open-source modeling and simulation framework JAMES II, and uses many other free software packages. A full list can be found here: List of Used Software.

Acknowledgements

The European Research Council has provided financial support under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 263744.

European Research CouncilUniversity of Rostock

Updated