Welcome to the Probabilistic Population Projection Model (PPPM) for Java
The PPPM is a model that you can use to project a population by single age and sex probabilistically. Probabilistic population projections allow you to catch and quantify projection uncertainty.
In general, you need assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration to project a population over a projection horizon of several years. Usually, the PPPM computes outcome density (for instance for the future total population size) via Monte-Carlo simulation (though another computation mode is available too).
A brief note on terminology: the PPPM is the methodological projection model, and the P3J is the software prototype that implements it.
- Separate assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration for subpopulations, i. e. for natives, immigrants, emigrants, and their descendant generations
- Generate multiple assumptions in mortality, fertility, and migration for each subpopulation with any method you deem best
- Exclude implausible combinations of assumptions in a projection trial via Settypes and Sets
- Powerful output analysis and reporting
- Free to use and adapt, as it is licensed under the Apache 2.0 License
See the Feature Overview for details.
Please make sure that you have Java 7 (Update 7 or higher) installed.
The installation is fairly simple:
- Download the latest release (check the Release Notes to find out about new features)
- Unzip the release
- You need R and LaTeX for report generation (but not for results export, this also works without these tools)
- For 'real' (large) population projections, we strongly recommend that you use MySQL (see Using MySQL for details)
To start the software, execute
p3j.bat if you are using MS Windows or
p3j.sh if you are using Linux.
See How to conduct a projection for a detailed walkthrough.
You can find further information about the PPPM and its implementation here:
- Christina Bohk (2012): Ein probabilistisches Bevölkerungsprognosemodell. Entwicklung und Anwendung für Deutschland, Ph.D. thesis, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, (accessible here: http://www.springer-vs.de/Buch/978-3-531-19266-6/Ein-probabilistisches-Bevoelkerungsprognosemodell.html)
- Christina Bohk, Roland Ewald and Adelinde M. Uhrmacher (2009): Probabilistic population projection with JAMES II, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference (freely accesible here: http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc09papers/193.pdf)
For more information, just contact Christina_Bohk :
In case you use the PPPM or the P3J to conduct a population projection, please cite one of the references given above.
Contributions to the project are always welcome. Please see How to contribute for details.