Source

analysis_pycon_2010 / slides.html

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<h1>Analysis: The Other Kind of Testing</h1>

</div>
</div>
<div class="presentation">
<div class="slide" id="slide0">
<h1 class="title">Analysis: The Other Kind of Testing</h1>
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<td>Bob Ippolito (&#64;etrepum)</td></tr>
<tr><th class="docinfo-name">Date:</th>
<td>February 2010</td></tr>
<tr class="field"><th class="docinfo-name">Venue:</th><td class="field-body">PyCon 2010</td>
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<h1>Bob's Perspective</h1>
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<ul class="simple">
<li>CTO/Cofounder of Mochi Media</li>
<li>Platform for Flash games</li>
<li>Virtual currency and game discovery for gamers</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="analysis">
<h1>Analysis</h1>
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<ul class="simple">
<li>Separation of a whole into its component parts</li>
<li>An examination of a complex, its elements, and their relations</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="why-do-i-care">
<h1>Why do I care?</h1>
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<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">SCIENCE:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
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</tbody>
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<ul class="simple">
<li>Be creative when exploring new ideas</li>
<li>Not when measuring them</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="who-does-this">
<h1>Who does this?</h1>
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<col class="field-body" />
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</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Amazon</li>
<li>Facebook</li>
<li>Google</li>
<li>Microsoft</li>
<li>Zynga</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="how-it-works">
<h1>How it works</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Scientific Method:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Create a hypothesis</li>
<li>Design an experiment</li>
<li>Run experiment</li>
<li>Analyze the results</li>
</ul>
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<div class="slide" id="hypothesis">
<h1>Hypothesis</h1>
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<ul class="simple">
<li>Divergent from what you have</li>
<li>Simple</li>
<li>Testable</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="testable">
<h1>Testable</h1>
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<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
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</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Quantifiable</li>
<li>Business relevant</li>
<li>Key Performance Indicator</li>
<li>Overall Evaluation Criteria</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="fitness-metric-examples">
<h1>Fitness Metric Examples</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Your Metric May Vary:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Click-through rate (CTR)</li>
<li>Cost Per Acquisition (CPA)</li>
<li>Avg $ per user (ARPU)</li>
<li>% of gamers who beat the last level</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="experiment">
<h1>Experiment</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">&quot;To Try Out&quot;:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Method of investigation</li>
<li>Many ways to do this</li>
<li>Easiest to follow a template</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="split-testing">
<h1>Split Testing</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">A/B Testing:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>50% control group gets no changes</li>
<li>50% test group sees changes</li>
<li>Group selection method is important</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="group-selection">
<h1>Group Selection</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">random.choice:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Group should be randomly selected</li>
<li>Pin user to group during experiment</li>
<li>Easiest with logins, but can be done without (cookies, etc.)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="selection-pseudocode">
<h1>Selection Pseudocode</h1>
<pre class="literal-block">
from random import choice

def view_page():
    if get_bucket(user) == 'test':
        test_group_page()
    else:
        control_group_page()

def get_bucket(user):
    if user.bucket is None:
        user.bucket = choice(('test', 'control'))
        user.save()
    return user.bucket
</pre>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="logging">
<h1>Logging</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Log Everything:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Log everything you can</li>
<li>Recording the bucket is very important</li>
<li>Flat files are easy</li>
<li>JSON is convenient (can be newline delimited)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="logging-pseudocode">
<h1>Logging Pseudocode</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Just Kidding:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>It's not actually easy</li>
<li>Multiple threads/processes/machines -&gt; :(</li>
<li>Options include database, syslog or message queue</li>
<li>Gets harder at scale (e.g. Facebook's Scribe)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="log-processing">
<h1>Log Processing</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">ETL:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Extract the log data</li>
<li>Transform it into a useful format</li>
<li>Load the data for analysis</li>
<li>Typically done in batch, e.g. daily or hourly</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="log-processing-example">
<h1>Log Processing Example</h1>
<pre class="literal-block">
db = sqlite3.connect('testdata.db')
cur = db.cursor()
COLS = 'timestamp', 'user_id', 'bucket', 'dollars'
cur.execute('CREATE TABLE testdata(' +
            ','.join(COLS) + ')')

for line in log_lines:
    dct = json.loads(line)
    row = [dct[col] for col in COLS]
    cur.execute(
        'INSERT INTO testdata VALUES(?,?,?,?)',
        row)
db.commit()
</pre>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="id1">
<h1>Analysis</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Math time:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Plot data over time to see difference visually</li>
<li>Make sure to compare sample size</li>
<li>Check your work</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="overall-query">
<h1>Overall Query</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Overall Performance:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<pre class="literal-block">
SELECT
    bucket,
    COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) AS sample_size,
    SUM(dollars)*1.0/COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) AS arpu
FROM testdata
GROUP BY bucket;
</pre>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="daily-query">
<h1>Daily Query</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Plot This:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<pre class="literal-block">
SELECT
    date(timestamp, 'unixepoch') as day,
    bucket,
    COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) AS sample_size,
    SUM(dollars)*1.0/COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) AS arpu
FROM testdata
GROUP BY day, bucket ORDER BY day, bucket;
</pre>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="sanity-check-query">
<h1>Sanity Check Query</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">No Results is Good:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<pre class="literal-block">
SELECT user_id
FROM testdata
GROUP BY user_id HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT bucket)&gt;1;
</pre>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="simpson-s-paradox">
<h1>Simpson's Paradox</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">When Good is Bad:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Hidden variables can confuse results</li>
<li>Sample size is important</li>
<li>Random selection and 50/50 split helps avoid this issue</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="paradox-example">
<h1>Paradox Example</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Grad School Acceptance:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="1" class="docutils">
<colgroup>
<col width="21%" />
<col width="40%" />
<col width="38%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr><td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>Men</td>
<td>Women</td>
</tr>
<tr><td>Arts</td>
<td>3/4 (75%)</td>
<td>1/1 <strong>(100%)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td>Science</td>
<td>0/1 (0%)</td>
<td>1/4 <strong>(25%)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td>Totals</td>
<td>3/5 <strong>(60%)</strong></td>
<td>2/5 (40%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="ramp-up">
<h1>Ramp-up</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Start Slow:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>New features are scary, might be broken</li>
<li>Run a staged experiment, e.g. 1% -&gt; 5% -&gt; 20% -&gt; 50%</li>
<li>If it is obviously broken, abort!</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="ramp-up-implementation">
<h1>Ramp-up Implementation</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Buckets For Your Buckets:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Segment users randomly into range(100) buckets</li>
<li>During 1% period include range(1) in test group</li>
<li>During 5% period include range(5) in test group</li>
<li>...</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="ramp-up-analysis">
<h1>Ramp-up Analysis</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">More Math:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Users will cross from control to test group during experiment</li>
<li>Overlap is still bad</li>
<li>Easiest to only look at single test period</li>
<li>Double-check queries to make sure there is no overlap</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="parallel-tests">
<h1>Parallel Tests</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Even More Math:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Multivariate Testing</li>
<li>Test multiple changes in parallel</li>
<li>Changes can interfere, reinforce, or have no effect on each other</li>
<li>Beyond scope of this talk</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="group-selection-pitfalls">
<h1>Group Selection Pitfalls</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">DANGER!:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Each experiment should have independent group selection</li>
<li>If you re-use buckets across experiments your data is invalid</li>
<li>Important even if not running parallel tests!</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="confidence">
<h1>Confidence</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">More Data:</th><td class="field-body"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<ul class="simple">
<li>Confidence goes up with lots of samples</li>
<li>Chi-squared or Student's t-test good candidates</li>
<li>Not my expertise, find a statistician :)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="free-tools">
<h1>Free Tools</h1>
<dl class="docutils">
<dt>Django Lean</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://bitbucket.org/akoha/django-lean/">http://bitbucket.org/akoha/django-lean/</a></dd>
<dt>Google Website Optimizer</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://services.google.com/websiteoptimizer/">http://services.google.com/websiteoptimizer/</a></dd>
</dl>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="more-info">
<h1>More Info</h1>
<dl class="docutils">
<dt>Microsoft's Experimentation Platform</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://exp-platform.com/">http://exp-platform.com/</a></dd>
<dt>Effective A/B Testing</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://elem.com/~btilly/effective-ab-testing/">http://elem.com/~btilly/effective-ab-testing/</a></dd>
<dt>Startup Lessons Learned</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/search/label/split-test">http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/search/label/split-test</a></dd>
<dt>Andrew Chen's Blog</dt>
<dd><a class="reference external" href="http://andrewchenblog.com/">http://andrewchenblog.com/</a></dd>
</dl>
</div>
<div class="slide" id="questions">
<h1>Questions?</h1>
<table class="docutils field-list" frame="void" rules="none">
<col class="field-name" />
<col class="field-body" />
<tbody valign="top">
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Twitter:</th><td class="field-body">&#64;etrepum</td>
</tr>
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Blog:</th><td class="field-body"><a class="reference external" href="http://bob.pythonmac.org/">http://bob.pythonmac.org/</a></td>
</tr>
<tr class="field"><th class="field-name">Mochi Media:</th><td class="field-body"><a class="reference external" href="http://www.mochimedia.com/">http://www.mochimedia.com/</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Mochi is hiring:</p>
<ul class="simple">
<li><a class="reference external" href="http://www.mochimedia.com/jobs.html">http://www.mochimedia.com/jobs.html</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</body>
</html>