Odd data pattern recurring every year

[Ghislain Hachey]

Would be good to understand why. This is in RMI. Pattern seen in screenshot from Digest 2022.

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[Brian Lewis]

@Ghislain Hachey

This is a good use of the ‘drill down’ from the Indicators page to prove the veracity of these numbers … here’s what you get drilling in to Survival to Level 8 on primary:

The reason why there is a spike in promotion from YoE7 2019 to YoE8 is becuase there is actually a higher enrolment in YoE8 in 2020. In other words, there must be ‘dropins’; ie children ghoing straight into YoE8 without doing YoE7 the year before.

In fact , this is due to the enrolment going in to ‘Pre9’ class, which is also Year of EDucation 8:

I’d say what happens is that children who have previously dropped out come back to do Grade 8 or Pre-9, in order to either complete primary, or try to qualify to get into secondary.

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But - it seems not many do .. the promotion rate of these Year 8 s going to Year 9 falls sharply.

So you are seeing a “bulge” of enrolment at year 8 as children do that one year - without doing the previous or the following year, causing the shape in the graph above.

Not uncommon….. have seen the same phenomenon in SI and Kiribati.

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[Brian Lewis]

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